Pre-Balancing Structural Risk Screening for Crafting Economy Design
TL;DR
A claim-bounded pre-balancing method that separates what pre-numeric structure and categorical source/sink annotations can exclude, what they can only flag, and what requires later numeric analysis is presented.
Abstract
Crafting economies are often evaluated only after prices and rates are specified, although some unsupported states can be screened earlier from structure alone. We present a claim-bounded pre-balancing method that separates what pre-numeric structure and categorical source/sink annotations can exclude, what they can only flag, and what requires later numeric analysis. On a typed production graph with recipe-level AND semantics, we apply bottleneck, exchange-role, and bootstrap checks to an induced seven-discipline Elancia crafting subgraph (520 items, 331 recipes, 866 total nodes). The screen reports a highlighted witness-supported bottleneck, four outgoing exchange-deficit cases, and three bootstrap failures under an NPCShop+Gathering baseline. We then translate those signals into a profession-topology redesign sketch that reduces maximum binary source share from 50.0% to 29.4%, eliminates zero-outgoing cases, and raises mean unique out-partners from 0.86 to 2.43. We treat the comparison as actionability evidence rather than recipe-level validation.