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What Saturates Is Not the Earthquake but the Scale ── Measured by m_b, the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake's Energy Is Estimated at One 5623rd ── A Scale Saturates When the Source Duration Exceeds the Period It Observes ── [Paper 282]

Yuuki Yamagishi
Aug 2026 · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
earthquake and tectonic studies

Abstract

“Magnitude” is not one thing. There are four──M_L, m_b, M_S, M_w──and all but M_w hit a ceiling for great earthquakes. This paper asks whether what hits the ceiling is the earthquake or the scale──the answer is the scale. No new mathematical theorem and no new law is claimed. Scope of this paper (scope note): No new mathematical theorem and no new law is claimed──M_w=frac23log_10M_0-6.07, log_10E=1.5M+4.8, the saturation values of each scale, and the rupture duration of the Tohoku earthquake are all standard. We do not build seismology──all we use is two linear expressions and one division. We do not predict earthquakes──time, place, and size are not treated at all. We do not discuss source processes──neither rupture propagation nor slip distribution is treated. The duration is merely placed as a representative value. We claim no accuracy for the saturation values──M_L ~ 6.8, m_b ~ 6.5, M_S ~ 8.5 are approximate, moving by about +/-0.3 with network and procedure. We do not assert the omega^-2 model──the 1.7501 of Section 5 is an upper bound the model gives, not a value that accounts for the observed 0.60. This paper does not explain the gap between model and observation. We do not say M_w is perfect──M_w carries its own error in estimating M_0; it merely does not saturate. We assert no individual earthquake’s values──the M_w and M_S of the tables are representative values widely used in the literature, differing by about +/-0.1 between agencies. Relation to earlier papers: Paper 117 treated the Gutenberg--Richter power law──that concerns the relation between the number and the size of earthquakes, while this paper concerns the construction of the scale itself. The material is the same earthquakes; the question differs. Paper 190 measured “rare” on a logarithmic scale──this paper likewise treats how a difference of 0.6 on a logarithmic scale becomes a factor of 7.94. Paper 255 separated two things called “accuracy,” only one of which calibration removes──the saturation here is on the side that calibration does not remove, arising from the construction of the scale. Paper 140 separated symmetry fixing ratios from dynamics fixing the scale──this paper treats the case where the scale side breaks. What is added is arranging the four scales by observed period, computing that m_b estimates the Tohoku energy at one 5623rd, confirming that the same procedure is off by only a factor of 1.41 for small earthquakes, and writing the ratio 7.5 of rupture duration to observed period as the separator. First, the four scales observe different periods. M_L at 0.1 s, m_b at 1 s, M_S at 20 s, and M_w choosing no period at all (Section 2). Second, this is the core of the paper. m_b saturates at M ~ 6.5, so measuring the M_w=9.0 Tohoku earthquake with it estimates the energy at one 5623rd (Section 3). Third, even M_S falls short by a factor of 7.94. The difference of 0.6 between M_S=8.4 and M_w=9.0 is a factor of 7.9433 in energy (Section 3). Fourth, it does not happen for small earthquakes. For 1995 Southern Hyogo the difference is 0.10, a factor of only 1.41 in energy (Section 4). Fifth, the cause is the duration of rupture. The Tohoku rupture lasted 150 s, 7.5 times the 20 s that M_S observes (Section 5). Sixth, the separator is whether the source duration exceeds the observed period. M_w alone does not saturate because it chooses no period and measures M_0 directly (Section 6). When magnitude hits a ceiling for great earthquakes, it is not the earthquake that hits the ceiling. Measuring the 2011 Tohoku earthquake with m_b gives 6.5, that is an energy estimated at one 5623rd──of the same event, m_b says moderate and M_w says fourth largest ever recorded. Even M_S falls short by 7.9433──the difference is only 0.6, but it is 0.6 on a logarithmic scale. And it does not happen for small earthquakes──for 1995 Southern Hyogo it stays at 1.4125. The scale is not broken; it is being used outside its range. The cause is the duration of rupture──the Tohoku rupture lasted 150 s, 7.5 times the 20 s that M_S observes. A 20 s wave carries only part of a 150 s event. One thing separates them──whether the source duration exceeds that scale’s observed period. If it does, no amount of calibration removes the saturation. If it does not, the four scales agree well. M_w alone escapes saturation not because it is superior but because it has no period to compare against. On the making of this work: The ideas and content of this work stem from the author's own considerations. Assistance from an AI (a large language model) was used for structuring, English translation, and checking the algebra. Any remaining errors or misinterpretations are solely the author's. Feedback and corrections are sincerely appreciated. ----- 「マグニチュード」は一つではない。 M_L・m_b・M_S・M_w の四つがあり、M_w 以外は大地震で頭打ちになる。本稿が問うのは、頭打ちになっているのは地震か、尺度かである──答は、尺度である。新しい数学定理も新しい法則も主張しない。 本稿の射程(射程注記):新しい数学定理も新しい法則も主張しない──M_w=frac23log_10M_0-6.07、log_10E=1.5M+4.8、各尺度の飽和値、東北地震の破壊継続時間は、いずれも標準的である。地震学を作らない──使うのは二つの一次式と、一つの割り算だけである。地震を予知しない──発生時期も場所も規模も一切扱わない。震源過程を論じない──破壊の伝播も、すべりの分布も扱わない。継続時間を代表値として置くだけである。飽和値の精度を主張しない──M_L ~ 6.8、m_b ~ 6.5、M_S ~ 8.5 はおおよその値であり、観測網と手続きによって +/-0.3 程度動く。 omega^-2 模型を主張しない──第5節の 1.7501 は模型が与える上限であって、実測の 0.60 を説明しきる値ではない。模型と実測の差そのものを、本稿は説明しない。 M_w が完全だと言わない──M_w にも M_0 の推定誤差があり、飽和しないというだけである。個別の地震の値を主張しない──表の M_w・M_S は文献で広く用いられている代表値であり、機関によって +/-0.1 程度異なる。既刊との関係:論文117 はグーテンベルク=リヒターの冪則を扱った──あちらは地震の個数と大きさの関係であり、本稿は尺度そのものの構成である。同じ地震を材料にしているが、問いが違う。論文190 は「稀」を対数の目盛りで測った──本稿も対数目盛りの上で 0.6 という差が 7.94 倍になることを扱う。論文255 は「精度」が二つあり較正で消えるのは一方だけだと分けた──本稿の飽和は較正で消えない側であり、尺度の構成に由来する。論文140 は対称性が比を決め力学が尺度を決めると分けた──本稿は尺度の側が壊れる場合を扱う。加えたのは四つの尺度を観測周期で並べたこと、m_b が東北地震のエネルギーを 5623 分の一に見積もると計算したこと、同じ手続きが小さい地震では 1.41 倍しかずれないと確かめたこと、破壊継続時間と観測周期の比 7.5 を分離子として書いたことである。 第一に、四つの尺度は測る周期が違う。 M_L が 0.1 秒、m_b が 1 秒、M_S が 20 秒、M_w は周期を選ばない(第2節)。 第二に、これが本稿の芯である。 m_b は M ~ 6.5 で頭打ちになるので、M_w=9.0 の東北地震を測るとエネルギーを 5623 分の一に見積もる(第3節)。 第三に、M_S でも 7.94 倍足りない。 M_S=8.4 と M_w=9.0 の差 0.6 は、エネルギーでは 7.9433 倍である(第3節)。 第四に、小さい地震では起きない。1995 年兵庫県南部では差が 0.10、エネルギーで 1.41 倍にとどまる(第4節)。 第五に、原因は破壊の継続時間である。東北の破壊は 150 秒続き、M_S の見る 20 秒の 7.5 倍である(第5節)。 第六に、分離子は「震源時間が観測周期を超えるか」である。 M_w だけが飽和しないのは、周期を選ばず M_0 を直接測るからである(第6節)。 大地震でマグニチュードが頭打ちになるのは、地震が頭打ちになっているのではない。2011 年東北地震を m_b で測ると 6.5、すなわちエネルギーを 5623 分の一に見積もる──同じ地震を、m_b は中規模だと言い、M_w は史上第四位だと言う。 M_S でも 7.9433 倍足りない──差は 0.6 にすぎないが、対数目盛りの上の 0.6 だからである。そして小さい地震では起きない──1995 年兵庫県南部では 1.4125 倍にとどまる。尺度は壊れているのではなく、範囲の外で使われている。原因は破壊の継続時間である──東北の破壊は 150 秒続き、M_S の見る 20 秒の 7.5 倍だった。20 秒の波は、150 秒の出来事の一部しか運ばない。分けるものは一つ──震源の継続時間が、その尺度の観測周期を超えているかどうか。超えていれば、どんなに較正しても飽和は消えない。超えていなければ、四つの尺度はよく一致する。 M_w だけが飽和しないのは優れているからではなく、比べるべき周期を持たないからである。 作成にあたって:本稿の着想と内容は、著者自身の考察に基づくものです。文章の構成整理や英訳、数式の確認には AI(大規模言語モデル)の助力を得ました。最終的な内容の解釈や誤りがあれば、それらはすべて著者の責に帰します。お気づきの点があれば、ご教示いただければ幸いです。

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