Global shifts in mountain wave turbulence within high resolution climate models

Abstract

Using a multi-model approach, this paper quantifies global changes in moderate or greater mountain wave turbulence (MWT) within a high-end warming scenario by 2050. We first show that simulated MWT changes depend on model resolution and therefore select three high resolution global climate model experiments for further analysis; HadGEM3-GC3.1-HM (25 km), EC-Earth-3P-HR (36 km) and MPI-ESM1.2-XR (34 km). The wide model and index uncertainty across continental average projections lead to a sub-continental 28 area approach. Using this method, we determined MWT is projected to increase over North America as a whole but decrease over the Rocky Mountains. An increase in MWT is projected for other regions including the Antarctic, Greenland, Georgia, Azerbaijan and parts of Chile and Argentina. A decline in MWT is projected for the Alps, Atlas and northern and central Andes. We also explore the modelled relationship of 10 m wind speed and MWT production; there is a positive correlation between the projected changes of MWT and surface wind speed. The aviation sector should be aware of the future projections in MWT, particularly for regions where a large increase in MWT is projected, such as the Antarctic and Greenland.