Skip to content
Open access

Recent strengthening of eastern Pacific ENSO in the last millennium paleorecord.

Aug 2026 · Science · pp. eady2660 · 3 citations · 49 references
Medicine

Abstract

The Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generates climate extremes that endanger ecosystems, infrastructure, and human well-being worldwide. The response of this system to climate warming is poorly constrained, due both to data scarcity and uncertainties in climate models. The geochemistry of Galápagos coral skeletons across the past millennium reveals a large recent increase in interannual variability of sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared to existing paleorecords that exceeds simulated natural variability. This increase parallels rising global temperature and results from stronger El Niño events. Central Pacific coral data also show increased variability, although less distinctly than in the Galápagos. Our results provide long-term context for understanding ENSO variability trends, with troubling implications for climate extremes.

Read PDF

Similar papers

Open access Sep 2026

Different Last Millennium El Niño Southern Oscillation Sea Surface Temperature Patterns Drive Disparate North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Characteristics

Understanding the relationship between the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity is critical for both seasonal predictions and future projections of TCs. Unfortunately, the satellite observational era (1970‐present) captures too few El Niño events to fully cha...

E. Wallace, Sylvia G. Dee, Andrew Bierbower et al. · 0 citations
Open access Oct 2026

Southern Portugal hydroclimate of the last millennium from near‐annually resolved speleothem records

Hydroclimate in Portugal is influenced by the North Atlantic subtropical high‐pressure system (the Azores High) and by internal climate modes, most prominently the North Atlantic Oscillation, which may shift in position and/or intensity due to anthropogenic climate change. The development of high‐resolution paleocl...

Alaina G. Chormann, A. Wanamaker, D. Thatcher et al. · 0 citations
Open access Sep 2026

Western Pacific corals reveal Common Era changes in ENSO-diversity, thermal stress, and volcanic cooling

How El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability and diversity have changed over the Common Era, and how corals have responded to ENSO-induced temperature anomalies, remains unclear. Here, Porites microatolls from Arno Atoll, Marshall Islands, in the western Pacific were analyzed across three periods: 484–560 ± 6 CE (Late...

O. Knebel, T. Felis, M. Kölling et al. · 0 citations
Open access

El Niño-Southern Oscillation Modulation of Tropical Cyclone Climatology over the Southwest Pacific

Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause major devastation across the Southwest Pacific, a region that includes small island developing states such as Fiji and Vanuatu, as well as New Zealand. TC activity in this basin is strongly influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which alters sea surface temperature (SST) gr...

T. E. Oginni · 0 citations
Open access Sep 2026

The Role of ENSO Phase Transition in the Delayed North Atlantic Oscillation Response

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the Earth system, exerting profound influences on global weather and climate. One notable impact is its ability to generate a dipole‐like sea level pressure anomaly pattern over the North Atlantic, resembling the North Atlantic O...

Bing-Ning Meng, Lei Zhang · 0 citations

We use cookies to run the site and, with your consent, for analytics and to show ads. See our Cookie Policy.