Impact attribution of anthropogenic forcing on lake surface temperature
Abstract
Global lakes are important sources of freshwater, supporting biodiversity and providing vital ecosystem services. While widespread lake surface warming has been well-documented, formal attribution of this trend to specific anthropogenic drivers has remained out of reach. Here, we provide the attribution of global lake surface warming to human activities using a dataset that integrates satellite-constrained lake temperature estimates with climate model simulations. From 1950 to 2020, we find that the observed 0.47 °C increase in lake surface temperature is primarily driven by greenhouse gas emissions, which contributed a warming trend of 0.95 °C, partially offset by aerosol-induced cooling of −0.28 °C. A dominant greenhouse-gas fingerprint is consistently detected across 23 of 44 studied regions, with regional variations reflecting the influence of other anthropogenic and natural forcings. Our findings provide the direct evidence of global lake surface warming induced by greenhouse-gas emissions, offering scientific foundations for climate accountability and future adaptation in a warming world. This study provides evidence that human activity has warmed lakes worldwide, with greenhouse gas emissions driving most of the 0.47 °C increase from 1950 to 2020 while aerosol pollution partly offset the warming.