Validation of Reanalysis and Mesoscale Wind Datasets Against Doppler Lidar Measurements at Hub Height in the Eastern Baltic Region

Abstract

Abstract This study assesses the performance of four reanalysis datasets, ERA5, NORA3, CERRA, and EMD WRF Europe+, by comparing them to Doppler LiDAR measurements taken at 192 m in Riga, Latvia. The analysis focused on wind speed, wind direction, Weibull distribution, turbulence intensity (TI), and its diurnal variation, using multiple statistical metrics. All datasets showed strong agreement with the LiDAR data, with correlation coefficients between 0.88 and 0.90. NORA3 performed best overall, while ERA5 had the lowest systematic and relative errors. Wind direction exhibited larger discrepancies, likely due to differences between short-term measurements and climatological reanalysis fields. Both CERRA and EMD underestimated turbulence intensity relative to LiDAR observations. Overall, the results indicate that reanalysis datasets can reliably estimate hub-height wind speed but require careful validation for turbulence intensity and site-specific wind resource evaluations.