AI-Based Digital Twins for Renewable Energy Grid Optimization: A Framework for Real-Time Forecasting, State Estimation and Adaptive Dispatch

Abstract

Growing reliance on distributed, weather-dependent renewable sources brings sizable variability, uncertainty, and stability problems to today's power grids. This work proposes an AI-driven digital twin (DT) framework that pairs a real-time physical-data grid model with a layered AI optimisation engine made up of an LSTM/Transformer forecaster, a graph neural network (GNN) state estimator, and a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) dispatch controller. The twin continually mirrors the physical grid, supporting scenario simulation, predictive fault detection, and closed-loop control recommendations before any action is applied to the real system. A case study on a modified IEEE 33-bus feeder with solar PV and wind generation shows the framework raises renewable utilisation by 19 points, cuts curtailment by 28 points, and lowers fault response time by 68.2% versus a conventional energy-management system. These results suggest AI-enhanced digital twins are a scalable route to self-optimising, resilient renewable-heavy grids.