The Nexus Between Technology and Economic Development in the European Union

Abstract

Over the last two decades, technological progress has significantly transformed economic and social structures, making innovation and digitalization essential drivers of competitiveness and sustainable growth. However, EU still lags behind the US in terms of innovation, research and development expenditure. This paper examines the relationship between technological factors and economic development in European Union Member States. The analysis is based on panel data covering 2010-2024, with an effective estimation sample of 2012-2024 due to lag structure and first difference transformations to improve the model accuracy. The analysis applies the Panel Estimated Generalized Least Squares (EGLS) method, using Period SUR as GLS weights option and as a coefficient covariance method. The results identify positive and significant associations between the research and development expenditure / employment in technology and knowledge intensive sectors and GDP per capita. In contrast, unemployment shows a negative relationship with economic performance. These findings highlight the important role of innovation and knowledge-based sectors in supporting economic growth and competitiveness within the European Union. The results suggest that research and development activities are associated with higher levels of economic development across the European Union. This finding is particularly relevant in the current context, given that the European Union has consistently failed to meet its R&D expenditure targets throughout the 2010–2024 period, with the share of R&D expenditure in GDP increasing by only 0.25 percentage points over the last 15 years. We also calculated the impact of greenhouse gas emissions per capita on GDP per capita, which was found to be positive, indicating the short-run cost of the green transition, as well as the negative effect of the major COVID-19 restriction on GDP per capita.