The Triple Sustainability Dynamic in Türkiye's Agricultural Sector: Projections Until 2030 on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Water Intensity, and Economic Dynamics

Abstract

This study aims to make predictions for the sustainability dynamics of Türkiye's agricultural sector until 2030, considering agricultural water use, greenhouse gas emissions, and agricultural economics from a three-pronged perspective. Predictions were made using data covering the years 1992-2022 based on greenhouse gas emissions and water intensity. Emissions were used in carbon equivalent (Mt CO2e), and water intensity in km³/billion USD. The analysis was conducted using the Prophet time series model across three scenarios. The scenarios were defined as Prophet estimate, international organization estimate, and linear decline. The relationships between variables were evaluated using correlation-based network analysis, and then regressive effects were tested using sensitivity analysis. Based on the findings, the international projections used in Scenario 2 (3.5%) showed that the share of agriculture in GDP would be 78.75 Mt CO2e in 2030. It was determined that this gave the most realistic value compared to the other two scenarios. The analysis findings also predicted that Türkiye's agricultural water intensity will decrease by 29.9% to 0.0379 km³/billion USD by 2030. Correlation analysis also revealed a strong positive correlation between water intensity and the share of agriculture, with a value of 0.87. Furthermore, it showed inverse relationships with greenhouse gas emissions, with values of -0.70 and -0.55, respectively. Subsequent sensitivity analysis confirmed that the impact of water intensity on the model is limited. The study, which offers a data-driven framework for Türkiye's agricultural policies, suggests focusing on drip irrigation, organic farming, and smart farming technologies as policy recommendations.