A Model for Assessing Road Safety in Mountain Tourist Areas: The Case of Mount Bromo

Abstract

Road safety in mountainous tourist areas is a critical concern due to winding, steep terrain and heavy tourist traffic. This study develops a road safety assessment model for access routes to Mount Bromo, integrating blackspot analysis, driver perception, and system dynamics modeling. A quantitative, evaluative design was applied across the three main access corridors through Probolinggo Regency. Primary data came from a road condition survey using International Road Assessment Programme (iRAP) attributes and a driver perception survey combining iRAP indicators with the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ). Secondary data included accident records from 2020 to 2024, tourist visitation figures, and road infrastructure data. Analysis relied on the Equivalent Accident Number (EAN), Accident Equivalent Rate (AEK), Equivalent Property Damage Only (EPDO), Importance Performance Analysis (IPA), and Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI) methods, along with system dynamics modeling in Vensim. Results show 269 accidents occurred between 2020 and 2024, with a steadily rising trend. Blackspot analysis identified eight accident-prone locations across the three corridors. Most respondents were tourists driving private vehicles with relatively high driving experience. The Vensim causal loop model revealed a reinforcing loop linking infrastructure, driver perception, and risky behavior, in which drivers tend to perceive roads as safer than their actual iRAP rating, sustaining rising accident risk. An education and intervention loop offsets this by realigning perception with actual conditions. Integrating blackspot analysis, driver perception, and road safety attributes yields a comprehensive framework linking infrastructure, behavior, and accident risk, offering a foundation for sustainable road safety policy in mountain tourist areas.