Dynamic Inventory Modeling and Two-Stage Transportation Strategy Optimization for Sustainable Water Supply to Lunar Settlements

Abstract

: To address the survival support requirements during the operational phase of lunar settlements, this study constructs a sustainable water supply model based on a “daily demand-recycling-dynamic inventory” framework. The objective is to ensure uninterrupted water supply for 100,000 residents over one year under dual pressures of launch risks and recycling losses. The model divides the replenishment process into two critical phases: Phase I involves 86 consecutive days of intensive transport to elevate the base from zero reserves to the initial inventory threshold for sustainable operation; Phase II transitions to an intermittent maintenance mode, balancing net system losses with an average replenishment frequency of 1.65 days. The study innovatively incorporates a risk reduction factor based on launch failure rates to enhance the system's resilience under non-ideal conditions. Multidimensional sensitivity analysis reveals that water recovery rate is the core variable determining resupply intensity and transport timeliness, where even minor improvements yield significant marginal benefits. This research provides quantifiable decision-making support for logistics planning in the long-term operation of extraterrestrial colonies.