Design of a Strategic Decision-Making Framework Based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to Address Geopolitical Risks in Oil and Gas Shipping Operations at PT XYZ

Abstract

Oil and gas shipping operations are increasingly exposed to geopolitical risks because they depend on strategic maritime chokepoints and operate across jurisdictions affected by conflicts, sanctions, security threats, and regulatory changes. This study aimed to develop a strategic decision-making framework based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to translate geopolitical risks into measurable operational decisions for PT XYZ. The research employed a qualitative explanatory case study supported by descriptive quantitative analysis. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews, internal document analysis, and public secondary sources and were validated through source and method triangulation. Security Risk Assessment was conducted using threat, vulnerability, consequence, likelihood, and impact parameters, followed by scenario analysis, safety and legal compliance screening, direct weighting, and MCDA-based alternative ranking. The results showed that crew safety and ship and cargo safety were the highest-priority criteria. The Continue as Planned option failed to meet the safety threshold, whereas the Re-Routing and Delay/Hold Position options achieved the highest scores of 4.20 and 4.16, respectively. Sensitivity testing indicated that these rankings could shift depending on management priorities. The study concluded that integrating security risk assessment, scenario analysis, and MCDA supported more structured, transparent, and accountable strategic decision-making under geopolitical uncertainty while strengthening organizational preparedness, resilience, and continuity of energy supply.