This paper conceptualizes digital evidence collection as a managed cyber-physical operation ("Mission Assurance") designed to guarantee the Confidentiality, Integrity, and Availability (CIA) triad of target assets and proposes a mathematical risk management model based on directed graph theory.
Abstract
The rapid digitalization of modern crime has precipitated a "reliability crisis" in digital forensics, where the inherent volatility of digital evidence and the prevalence of anti-forensic techniques frequently compromise data during search and seizure operations. To address this challenge, this paper conceptualizes digital evidence collection as a managed cyber-physical operation ("Mission Assurance") designed to guarantee the Confidentiality, Integrity, and Availability (CIA) triad of target assets. Transitioning from subjective, manual investigative tactics to an objective engineering approach, we propose a mathematical risk management model based on directed graph theory. The forensic process is mapped as a state graph where procedural actions are evaluated as directed edges, with risk weights calculated using negative natural logarithms of preservation success probabilities. The model's efficacy is validated through a synthetic scenario involving an active mobile terminal. Path analysis demonstrates that an algorithmically optimized strategy—combining hardware isolation with automated data extraction—mathematically minimizes the total risk of evidence loss. In contrast, traditional approaches like manual live triage or lack of network isolation significantly increase the probability of irreversible data destruction. Ultimately, this algorithmic modeling eliminates human cognitive biases and establishes a robust theoretical core for the overall execution of investigative actions, ensuring real-time operational optimization and strict legal admissibility of digital evidence in court.
This study proposes a Digital Twin – based approach to simulate cyber-attack scenarios and retrieve the data required for estimating the probability of attack success, demonstrated on a specific scenario involving the intentional shutdown of the cooling system of an electrolyzer module.
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A better AI-driven SIEM framework that combines machine learning-based threat detection with an automated incident response layer that follows security playbooks that have already been set up is suggested.
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