The Selection Rule Decides the Winner: A Pre-Registered Audit of Open-Set Graph Anomaly Detection

Abstract

Open-set graph anomaly detection trains on a few labeled anomalies from one class and must also find anomaly classes that were never labeled. Published results share three conventions: the test score is read at the best epoch on the test set, baseline numbers are copied from earlier papers, and most anomalies are minority classes relabeled as anomalous. We ask how much of the reported ranking these conventions decide. We re-run two recent methods, DEMO and NSReg, together with OUTPOST, a small first-order detector built for this study. All three use one protocol with identical seeds and splits on eight graphs (seven for the baselines, which cannot run on ogbn-mag), ten seeds each, and every run is scored under both the best-epoch rule and a deployable validation rule. Before the runs that test them, we registered 40 predictions. Three findings hold. First, the rule changes the leader: under the best-epoch rule, OUTPOST and NSReg each lead three of seven graphs, while under the validation rule, NSReg leads five. Second, the best-epoch bonus depends on how the benchmark was built: 0.045--0.080 AUC-ROC on the three small relabeled-class graphs and 0.002--0.014 on the three real fraud graphs. Third, pseudo-labeling in OUTPOST is worth 0.038--0.065 AUC-ROC on the same three graphs but gives no benefit on any real fraud graph. We also show that a 0.002 tie band for hyperparameter selection lies below the paired standard error on all six graphs tested, even at ten seeds. Twelve of our 40 predictions were falsified, and we report them. We close with a short reporting checklist.