Registered Fleet Composition and Port Goods Throughput in Greece: Preliminary Aggregate Evidence and an Illustrative Scenario
Abstract
The makeup of a national merchant fleet can be interpreted as the distribution of its vessels among various classes of ships. However, there is very little research that has addressed this topic concerning overall cargo operations. The current study aims to find out whether the composition of the Greek merchant fleet is associated with the total amount of cargo handled in Greek ports. The methodology used is based on aggregated statistics extracted from the Hellenic Statistical Authority for the period from 2015 to 2025 in order to analyze the correlation between the proportion of cargo ships and tankers in the overall fleet and the volume of cargo passing through Greek ports. According to the basic model, there is a positive relationship between the variables under consideration; however, the estimate is statistically imprecise and depends on the alternative specifications used. Based on the assumption of a constant short-term correlation, maintaining the share of cargo ships and tankers at the level observed in 2023 would correspond to a difference of about 0.26 million tonnes in 2025, equivalent to about 0.7% of total goods throughput. The results suggest that fleet composition can be used as a preliminary monitoring indicator, although more detailed data at the port, ship and cargo levels are needed before stronger operational or policy conclusions can be drawn.