Spatial Patterns of Marine Vessel Accidents Determinants and Forecast Future Casualties Along Inland Waterways in Rivers State, Nigeria

Abstract

This study analyzes the spatial patterns of marine vessel accidents, examines their determinants, and forecasts future casualties along inland waterways in Rivers State, Nigeria. The study adopts a retrospective longitudinal research design integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS), statistical techniques, and time-series forecasting. Data on recorded marine vessel accidents, fatalities, injuries, accident locations, vessel types, causes, environmental conditions, and operational characteristics will be obtained from relevant maritime regulatory, safety, emergency-response, and security agencies. Primary data will also be collected from vessel operators, passengers, boat owners, waterfront residents, and other relevant stakeholders through structured questionnaires and interviews. Descriptive statistical techniques will be used to establish accident frequencies, casualty levels, temporal trends, and major accident characteristics. GIS-based spatial techniques, including Kernel Density Estimation, Average Nearest Neighbour, Global Moran’s I, and Getis-Ord Gi* statistics, will be employed to identify accident concentrations, spatial clustering, and high-risk locations. Regression analysis will be used to examine the effects of human, technical, environmental, infrastructural, and institutional factors on accident occurrence and severity. Furthermore, time-series forecasting, particularly the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, will be applied to historical casualty data to estimate future trends in fatalities and injuries. Forecasting accuracy will be evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The study is expected to identify significant spatial and temporal variations in marine vessel accidents, with accident hotspots potentially concentrated around heavily trafficked waterways, major jetties, navigationally difficult channels, and areas characterized by intensive commercial activities. Human-related factors, including overloading, overspeeding, inadequate safety compliance, operator error, and poor navigation practices, are expected to be important determinants, alongside mechanical failures and adverse environmental conditions.