Classification of models for accounting for greenhouse gas emissionsfrom seagoing ships
Abstract
The article presents a classification and retrospective analysis of existing methods for accounting for greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions from seagoing ships. The main stages of model development are considered, from early top-down and bottom-up approaches based on aggregated fuel sales statistics and average ship characteristics to modern high-precision systems using shore-based and satellite Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, Long-Range Identification and Tracking (LRIT) data, as well as Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) data. Regional and global models (HELCOM, OSPAR, MEET, EMEP, EDGAR, MEERI, STEAM 1.0, 2.0, 3.0), their advantages and limitations, as well as hybrid approaches and chemical transport models are described in detail. Key scientific tasks for further development of the methodologies are identified, including accounting for hydrodynamic resistance, ice conditions, trim, biofouling, alternative power plants, and ship digital twins. Based on the analysis, initial technical requirements for the development of a hybrid model for assessing greenhouse gas emissions for the Russian Federation are substantiated. The model integrates satellite AIS, LRIT, national ship databases, fuel statistics, and hydrodynamic calculations adapted to Arctic and inland waterways, which will support both international reporting and domestic environmental monitoring.