ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFICIENCY OF TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ARCTIC REGION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Abstract

The article presents a comprehensive economic assessment of the development of the transport and logistics infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative route for international container traffic between China and Europe. Based on a comparative analysis of operating costs, quantitative risk assessment and investment modeling (BDD, PI, payback period), the economic feasibility of using the NSR has been proven. Three navigation scenarios have been developed (optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic). It was found that under the baseline scenario, the net savings per flight is $160.7 thousand, the annual savings are $803.5 thousand, and the payback period for organizational costs does not exceed 7.5 months. The sensitivity analysis showed a margin of safety for the NSR’s competitiveness of 17.5% in terms of the cost of an alternative route through the Suez Canal.