Zonal Patterns of Change in Vegetation Cover and Soil Moisture in Typical Tundra under Climate Warming Conditions (A Case Study of the Marresal Area, Yamal Peninsula)

Abstract

Under climate warming, the intensity of permafrost transformation process depends on many factors, including topography, landscape types, vegetation cover, and soil composition and moisture. Therefore, the author considers it relevant to identify the factors that most significantly influence permafrost stability, as well as to determine surface properties (indicators) that characterize its degradation. The aim of the study is to assess how climate warming alters vegetation properties and soil moisture across different landscape types and geomorphological levels, and to evaluate the relationship between these changes and geocryological conditions. The analysis is based on Landsat satellite data acquired between 1985 and 2024 for an area of typical tundra on the western coast of the Yamal Peninsula. Vegetation and moisture dynamics were quantified using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and the temperature-vegetation soil moisture index (WI, Wet Index). The identified trends in the indices show a dominant influence of topography on the rate of soil moisture and vegetation cover growth. Thus, the change rates of indices can be considered as indicators of changes in the depth of the seasonal thaw layer.