Aug 2026· Finance and Credit· pp. 76· 0 citations· 6 references
Abstract
Subject. Forecasting a country’s economic growth through the lens of the financial performance of leading companies in key industries.
Objectives. To develop an original methodology for scenario‑based forecasting of the economic growth trajectory, including baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios for the short term.
Methods. Theoretical and empirical approaches were used, along with correlation and regression analysis methods.
Results. Asymmetry in the impact of various financial parameters was revealed: dividend yield indicators make the largest contribution to explaining GDP variation, whereas the SMI stock index demonstrates relatively lower explanatory power. The findings allow identifying the corporate financial parameters most significant for the Swiss economy, which can be used to develop state and corporate strategies for sustainable development.
Conclusions. The developed scenario‑based forecasting methodology will enable the identification of various economic growth trajectories for countries by using the system of corporate financial strategy management as a tool for macroeconomic regulation.
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