Sustained Development of Nigeria: An Assessment of the Impact of Investment Drive in the Agricultural Sector of the Economy.
Abstract
Development essentially connotes the capacity and willingness of Man to overcome the harshness of nature in his favour. After independence in 1960, Agriculture was the mainstay of the Nigerian economy. Agriculture contributed over 90% of GDP and was the sole export earner. The discovery of oil in 1956, followed by the Oil boom of the 1970s, relegated the Agricultural Sector in its importance as the mainstay of the Nigerian economy. The over-dependence on Oil revenue and the resultant mismanagement of the Nigerian economy led to a host of problems. First, the growth rate in national income (nominal GDP) in the last few years had declined from 9.1% in 2011 to 4.4% in 2013. The non-oil sectors contributed only 25% of total revenue in 2012 and the economy is import-dependent with imports reaching N15.79 trillion in 2013 in nominal terms. Unemployment rate is high, reaching 27.4% in 2012 with the inflation rate as high reaching an all time high of 76.7% in 1994. The problem of the Nigerian economy is exacerbated by exchange rate problem resulting in sliding (depreciating) value of the naira due to the introduction of the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986. The present state of the economy is dismal with poverty, unemployment, inflation, insecurity and corruption being rife in the country. Some scholars and popular opinion have argued that the past neglect of the Agricultural sector was inimical to growth and development and that investment in Agriculture is the panacea to the Nigerian problem. This study is an attempt to test the above hypothesis. A 50% increase in investment intervention in 2026 in all the Agricultural sub-sectors was proposed and tested using total differential modeling approach and Markov Chains analysis and the result revealed and indicated that even though Agriculture cannot return to being the mainstay of the Nigerian economy, it will boost the growth and development of the Nigerian economy considerably and regain some of its lost glory and potentials, especially if developed and managed along modernized lines.