Sustainability of the Global Coffee Sector as an Agrifood System:A Statistical Review of Supply Risk, Resource Footprints, Livelihoods, and Circularity

Abstract

Purpose: This review evaluates the sustainability of the global coffee sector as an agrifood and business system, integrating supply concentration, climate exposure, resource footprints, smallholder livelihoods, certification, and circularity. Approach: A structured narrative review was combined with descriptive analysis of current secondary statistics from international organisations and peer-reviewed life-cycle, climate, biodiversity, and socioeconomic studies. Findings: World coffee production is forecast at 189.7 million 60-kg bags in 2026/27 and consumption at 179.7 million bags. Brazil and Vietnam provide approximately 55% of output, while the five largest origins provide 74.5%, creating material procurement and price risk. The sector supports up to 25 million farming households, yet most farms are very small and have limited adaptation capacity. Cultivation is generally the main life-cycle hotspot because land-use change, fertiliser, irrigation, and yield strongly influence carbon and water results. Voluntary sustainability standards cover a substantial share of production, but the gap between certified supply and certified sales weakens farmer incentives. Coffee residues offer circular-bioeconomy opportunities, subject to safety, logistics, and market feasibility. Originality/value: The article connects food-system evidence with sustainable supply-chain management and proposes a location-specific measurement architecture. It argues that credible transition strategies must combine deforestation-free sourcing, climate-resilient production, living-income procurement, inclusive traceability, demand-linked certification, efficient consumption, and safe cascading use of unavoidable residues.