Does Energy Vulnerability Sabotage the Net‐Zero Pledge? New Evidence on Carbon Emissions, Ecological Footprint, and Load Capacity and the Path to Net‐Zero Emissions

Abstract

Energy vulnerability (EV) is a key issue in the context of sustainable development, as concerns over the achievement of net‐zero emission targets have grown stronger due to climate change, rising carbon emissions and increasing energy insecurity. The impact of EV on environmental sustainability is explored by analyzing the linkage between EV and carbon emissions (CO 2 ), ecological footprint (EF), load capacity factor (LCF), and considering the influence of energy transition (ET), research and development (R&D), urbanization (U), population growth (PG), and environmental policy stringency (EPS). The study utilizes the balanced panel data set from 1990 to 2024 for 40 countries, using the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG and MG Estimators) estimator to separate the long‐run and short‐run dynamics, and an Error Correction Model (ECM) to analyze the speed of adjustment to long‐run equilibrium after short‐run shocks. The findings support the hypothesis that there is a stable long‐run cointegrating relationship between the variables. In the long run, energy vulnerability significantly influences environmental sustainability, while energy transition, R&D investment, and environmental policy stringency play important roles in improving ecological performance. In the short run, the estimated error correction terms are negative and statistically significant, indicating rapid convergence toward long‐run equilibrium after temporary disturbances. The results highlight that reducing energy vulnerability through diversification of clean energy sources, strengthening technological innovation, and implementing effective environmental policies is essential for improving environmental sustainability and supporting the transition toward net‐zero emissions. These findings provide important policy insights for achieving SDG 7, SDG 9 and SDG 13.