Determinants of Smallholder Farmers’ Participation and Income Effects of Home-Grown School Feeding Programme in Kenya

Abstract

The Home-Grown School Feeding Programme (HGSFP) provides a link between smallholder farmers and institutional markets, possibly for enhancing household productivity and income. However, empirical evidence on farmers’ engagement decisions and the programme's effect on income remains unknown. This study evaluates the determinants of HGSFP participation and its impact on smallholder farmers' household income. Survey data were collected from 384 households (200 participants and 184 non-participants in HGSFP) in the 2025 cropping production year. An Endogenous Switching Regression model was used to account for non-randomness in programme engagement and to evaluate counterfactual treatment effects. Participation was positively and statistically significantly influenced by awareness of school tendering procedures, farmer-group membership, land size owned, radio ownership, distance to extension services, and children currently attending public primary schools, but had a negative effect with herd ownership and off-farm income. The evaluated Average Treatment effect on Treated (ATE) was [ATE=2.1519, p<0.01], while the Average Treatment Effect on the Untreated (ATU) was [ATU=2.7762, p<0.01], showing significant probable income gains amongst currently excluded from HGSFP. The findings illustrate that HGSFP can work not only as a school-feeding intervention but also as an institutional market system for enhancing smallholder farmers’ welfare. The policy framework should combine programme expansion with enhanced access to farmer organizations, credit, extension services, and procurement information. The ATU estimates offer a basis for targeted programme expansion in terms of socioeconomic, institutional, and agroecological criteria, mainly for eligible non-participant households with higher potential income gains.