GLOBAL CHALLENGES AS A FACTOR OF TRANSFORMATION OF ECONOMIC RESILIENCE OF ICT-SECTOR ENTERPRISES

Abstract

The article examines the impact of global challenges on the transformation of economic resilience of information and communication technology (ICT) enterprises. It is substantiated that ICT enterprises play a dual role: they form the technological basis for the resilience of other sectors and are at the same time particularly sensitive to global shocks due to their dependence on human capital, global value chains, platforms, and rapid technological cycles. Key global challenges are systematized (geopolitical fragmentation and sanctions, cyber threats, talent shortage and migration, hardware supply disruptions, AI-driven disruption, regulatory fragmentation, energy and macro-financial instability), and their impact on the resilience of ICT enterprises is determined. A probability–impact matrix of global challenges is constructed. An integral index of economic resilience of an ICT enterprise, an exposure indicator, and a dynamic resilience model are proposed. It is shown that under the influence of global challenges economic resilience is transformed from predominantly financial stability into a multidimensional dynamic capability with a strengthened role of cyber resilience, human capital, and geographic diversification. Scenario modeling indicates that the innovative trajectory has the highest potential. It is substantiated that, under the influence of global challenges, economic resilience is transforming from a state defined primarily by financial stability into a multidimensional, dynamic capacity characterized by the heightened importance of cyber resilience, human capital, and geographic diversification. In the article have been proposed an index of exposure to global challenges, an integral index of ICT enterprise resilience, a model of dynamic resilience and assessment of the return on investment in resilience ("RRI" ). Scenario analysis showed that the greatest potential is provided by an innovative trajectory, the implementation of which requires the formation of dynamic capabilities, cyber resilience and a culture of adaptation. Prospects for further research are associated with empirical verification of the index's weight coefficients, industry comparison of ICT enterprise resilience and development of methods for measuring their antifragility in conditions of prolonged turbulence.