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TRADE POLICY IN TIMES OF GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY. INTERDEPENDENCE AND NEW FORMS OF PROTECTIONISM

Sep 2026 · Journal of Globalization, Competitiveness and Governability · 0 citations · 3 references

Abstract

Abstract:This research note analyzes the transformation of trade policy in a context of sustained global uncertainty characterized by geopolitical rivalry, economic fragmentation, and weakening multilateral governance. Drawing on recent scholarship in international political economy, it examines how traditional trade policy instruments—tariffs, non-tariff measures, and preferential trade agreements—have been reshaped by broader geoeconomic dynamics. The paper highlights how global value chains complicate the assessment of policy effects and contribute to the re-politicization of economic interdependence. Rather than testing a specific hypothesis, the article proposes an integrative conceptual framework structured around three theoretical propositions: the Dual Function Hypothesis, the Fragmented Cooperation Equilibrium, and the Resilience–Inclusiveness Proposition. These are illustrated through empirical cases including the US–China technology competition, the EU Critical Raw Materials Act, and Mexico’s nearshoring dynamics under USMCA. The article concludes by identifying key analytical tensions and avenues for future research. Keywords:Trade policy; Global uncertainty; Economic interdependence; Non-tariff measures; Geoeconomics; Global value chains  

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