TRANSFORMATION OF UKRAINE’S COMMODITY-GEOGRAPHICAL EXPORT STRUCTURE UNDER MARTIAL LAW: TRENDS, DISPROPORTIONS, AND DIRECTIONS FOR DIVERSIFICATION

Abstract

The study found that full-scale military aggression led to a radical change in the commodity and geographical structure of Ukraine’s exports, manifested in a disruption of the pre-war balance between the agricultural and metallurgical sectors, a critical decline in exports of heavy industrial products, and an increased dependence of the national economy on raw materials and foodstuffs. The European vector of foreign trade became dominant and virtually the only option, which allowed for partial compensation for the loss of other regional markets, but created a new systemic threat—an excessively high concentration of export flows within a single macro-region. A comparative analysis of Ukraine’s export portfolio with EU countries and the rest of the world in common markets was conductedThe highest level of competition was recorded with Bulgaria, a high level with EU countries, and a low level with the U.S. and China. Strategic directions for foreign trade policy are proposed: diversification of export markets, deepening the processing of raw materials, and intensifying trade diplomacy in promising markets. The relevance of this topic stems from the unprecedented challenges facing Ukraine’s export sector under martial law, when traditional logistics routes were blocked and a significant portion of production capacity was destroyed. The aim of the study is to conduct an in-depth analysis of the dynamics and structural shifts in exports, assess the competitive potential of domestic goods in global markets, and identify strategic priorities for diversifying foreign trade policy. The research methods are based on a systematic approach, comparative analysis, and economic-mathematical modeling using a modified Finger - Kraenin index, which integrates the commodity and geographical components of similarity in export portfolios. The results obtained demonstrate a fundamental transformation of Ukraine’s export model, a loss of market diversification, and the emergence of high levels of competitive tension with certain partner countries. The practical value of the findings lies in the identification of specific strategic directions for improving foreign trade policy, which can be utilized by government agencies in formulating economic development strategies, as well as by entities engaged in foreign economic activity to adapt their export strategies in the context of military aggression and post-war reconstruction.