Exploring the Interplay of Oceanic Tides and Rainfall in Flood Susceptibility in an Exorheic Basin.

Abstract

Floods are among the most harmful natural disasters for humans, and rising global temperatures tend to make them more frequent. This paper aims to model flood susceptibility in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, based on the 2019 and 2020 floods. The methodology used in the paper is based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process. The contribution of variables to extreme flood events was calculated to assess the influence of oceanic tides in conjunction with the extreme rainfall. The methodological procedures were mainly based on acquiring data referring to rainfall records, ocean tide oscillations, and other natural-anthropogenic variables. The results showed that ocean tidal oscillation in that region has played a secondary but essential role in flood events. Furthermore, observing ocean tide dynamics and extreme rainfall events is the key combination for explaining, preventing, and forecasting extreme flood events. For future research, it is recommended that the improvement of quality data (geodetic and meteorological) is essential to model flood susceptibility in coastal areas.