Modeling Population Vulnerabilities to Climate Change-Driven Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in the North Atlantic Basin

Abstract

Tropical cyclones are among the deadliest and costliest natural disasters in the United States, and the most intense storms are expected to become more frequent as the climate warms. Anticipating where deaths are most likely to occur is therefore central to preparedness, evacuation planning, and public health response. We modeled block-level mortality risk for twenty-four of the deadliest and costliest tropical cyclones to strike the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands between 1992 and 2024. For each storm, we combined NOAA hazard data (wind swaths, rainfall, and storm-surge inundation) with 2020 U.S. Census demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and the CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index for all Census blocks within 25 miles of the coast, and trained storm-specific boosted-tree models with population-standardized mortality as the outcome. Averaging block-level predictions within Saffir-Simpson categories yielded risk maps spanning tropical storms through Category 5 hurricanes. Predicted mortality risk rose with storm severity and concentrated in urban coastal communities of Puerto Rico, Louisiana, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, as well as in low-lying inlet, peninsula, and sound geographies. Large block population, non-Hispanic composition, male-dominated blocks, predominantly white blocks, and males aged 20 to 34 years ranked among the strongest predictors of mortality; patterns that likely reflect structural factors shaping exposure rather than individual susceptibility. The category-specific risk maps and an accompanying interactive dashboard provide a practical decision-support tool for emergency managers, planners, and coastal residents preparing for future storms.