Trends in cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality in Beijing, 2012–2022

Abstract

To assess the trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality among Beijing adults, providing a scientific basis for the development of chronic disease prevention and control strategies. A prospective cohort study was conducted among adults aged 18–79 years in Beijing. A face-to-face questionnaire, along with body measurements and laboratory tests, were administered to 42,548 participants. Follow-up data on CVD hospitalizations and mortality through December 31, 2022, were collected using the Beijing Hospital Discharge Information System and the Beijing Death Registry Reporting Information System. Data were age- and/or gender-standardized based on the 2020 Beijing census population. Poisson regression models were employed to analyze the adjusted rates. The Fine-Gray competing risks model was used to calculate cumulative recurrence rates. Between 2012 and 2022, the crude and standardized incidence rates of CVD were 723.1 and 816.9 per 100,000 person-years, with an annual growth rate of 5.5% (95% CI: 4.1, 7.0) and 1.5% (95% CI: -1.1, 4.1), respectively. The standardized incidence rates of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke were 507.7 and 436.2 per 100,000 person-years, with an annual change rate of 0.5 (95%CI: -2.1, 3.2) and 3.9% (95%CI: -0.3, 8.4), respectively. After adjusting for age, gender and living areas, the adjusted incidence rates for stroke increased annually among males, those aged 18–59, non-diabetic patients, obese individuals, and those with one chronic disease, increased annually. The crude and standardized mortality rates of CVD were 73.2 and 137.5 per 100,000 person-years, with annual changes of 13.0% (95% CI: 8.0, 18.2) and 8.0% (95% CI: -1.8, 18.7), respectively. The 10-year cumulative recurrence rates for CVD were 52.8%. From 2012 to 2022, the crude incidence rate of CVD showed a long-term upward trend, the standardized incidence rate remained relatively stable, and predominantly driven by IHD, with a high cumulative recurrence rate. The rising incidence of stroke among males, those aged 18 to 59, non-diabetic patients, obese individuals, and those with one chronic disease, should be reversed.