THE RISE OF CHINA AND THE EU’S BALANCING POLICY: AN ANALYSIS WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF GLOBAL SYSTEMIC RIVALRY

Abstract

This study examines the strategic dilemmas posed by China's global rise for the European Union (EU). In this context, it focuses on how Europe balances its geopolitical autonomy with protecting its economic interests in the face of China. The theoretical framework is based on realism and liberalism approaches, and also analyzed from a structuralist perspective emphasizing the EU's identity construction and normative aspects. Based on current sources, the study demonstrates that the EU's discourse on strategic autonomy encompasses not only security and defense, but also the management of economic dependence and value-based foreign policy dimensions. Differing attitudes among member states make it difficult to form a common strategic vision. The study also discusses how Beijing perceives the EU's claim to strategic autonomy, considering it alongside Chinese leadership statements, official documents, and academic debates. The study outlines the costs and probability dimensions of the EU's strategic options, discussing possible future scenarios such as cooperation, conflict, and bilateral adaptation. The overall contribution of the article is to reconceptualize EU-China relations along the lines of power balance and the pursuit of normative autonomy, while also offering practical implications for policymakers.