A Comprehensive Evaluation Framework for Hybrid Renewable Energy Integration Projects in Rural China: A BOCR-Based Fuzzy MCDM Approach

Abstract

Hybrid renewable energy integration (HREI) has recently emerged as a promising solution to promote energy sustainability and achieve carbon emission reduction in rural regions. However, how to evaluate HREI projects in an effective and comprehensive manner remains an urgent challenge, due to substantial uncertainties and the involvement of multiple stakeholders with heterogeneous interests. To address this issue, this paper applies a structured BOCR-based fuzzy MCDM framework to assess the multidimensional characteristics of HREI projects from the perspectives of benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks (BOCR). First, an indicator system for HREI project evaluation is established considering BOCR factors, comprising four dimensions and sixteen factors that reflect key concerns of relevant stakeholders. Second, triangular fuzzy number is employed to capture the inherent uncertainty and vagueness in expert evaluation information, while the Best–Worst Method is used to determine the indicator weights and represent their relative importance. Subsequently, the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations II is introduced to evaluate the comprehensive performance of HREI projects and provide a complete ranking of alternative HREI projects. The results indicate that alternative A2 in the Henan province, which integrates wind turbines, rooftop photovoltaic system, battery energy storage, and vehicle-to-grid interaction with electric vehicles, exhibits the highest evaluated performance among the selected alternatives under the BOCR-based evaluation framework. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis and comparative consistency analysis show that the ranking remains stable under the tested weight-variation scenarios and alternative MCDM procedures.