A Multidimensional Spatial–Temporal and Econometric Framework for Pedestrian Safety and Injury Severity Analysis in Amman, Jordan

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive multidimensional analysis of pedestrian accidents in Amman, Jordan, from 2014 to 2023. By integrating spatial, temporal, and statistical techniques, the research identifies critical risk patterns to inform evidence-based safety interventions. Characterizing a decade-long database of 14,821 cases, the study utilizes radar graphs, Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), and DBSCAN cluster analysis to delineate high-risk zones and temporal peaks. Temporal findings indicate that Thursdays recorded the highest accident frequency (2382 cases), with peak occurrences between 17:00 and 23:00. Spatial clustering identified five significant high-risk zones, with Central Amman emerging as the primary critical area. The study’s novelty lies in being the first in the Jordanian context to bridge accident frequency with severity mechanisms by integrating advanced spatial clustering and KDE with a robust Ordered Logit Model. Severity analysis reveals that while 59.34% of incidents resulted in minimal injuries, fatalities accounted for 5.02%. The model demonstrates that injury outcomes are systematically associated with traffic dynamics and behavior rather than environmental factors. Speed-related driver error was identified as the strongest predictor of severe outcomes (OR = 81.3). Significant dependencies were confirmed between vehicle category and road type (χ2 = 2182.20, p < 0.001), lighting and road surface (χ2 = 76.21, p < 0.001), and vehicle type and lighting (χ2 = 148.52, p < 0.001). The study proposes a multi-layered framework combining site-specific nodal improvements with corridor-level strategies to enhance urban safety in Amman City.