The dual effects of agricultural production service outsourcing on farmers' farmland transfer willingness: implications for rural household welfare in major wheat-producing areas of Henan, China

Abstract

Rural land use decisions and agricultural services are closely associated with rural household income, labor status and overall wellbeing, which are fundamental determinants of rural household welfare and livelihood sustainability. Based on 1,529 household-level datasets collected from four counties in major wheat-producing regions of China, the impact of agricultural production service outsourcing on farmers' willingness to transfer farmland is empirically analyzed using the ordered Probit and mediation effect models. The principal research findings are that this outsourcing significantly promotes farmers’ willingness to transfer in farmland, while it inhibits their willingness to transfer out farmland. Moreover, the land-stabilizing effect that inhibits farmland transfer-out is stronger than the land-expanding effect that encourages farmland transfer-in. Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that those managing large-scale farms tend to be motivated to transfer-in farmland, while the transfer-out behavior of farmers with small-scale holdings is significantly inhibited. Furthermore, the decision-making response of female household heads is significantly stronger than that of their male counterparts. Mediation mechanism analysis indicates that agricultural income growth and labor allocation optimization play partial mediating roles, while the transmission contribution of the income effect is greater than that of the labor allocation effect. This study reveals the asymmetric impact of service outsourcing on farmland transfer willingness and the dominance of the income effect.