High-Resolution Typhoon Risk Assessment Based on Geospatial Big Data: A Case Study of Haikou, China

Abstract

Typhoons often cause severe casualties, property losses, and infrastructure damage, and high-resolution spatial risk assessment is an important basis for developing effective disaster prevention and mitigation strategies. However, most existing typhoon risk assessments are conducted at relatively coarse spatial scales and provide limited representation of intra-urban differences in mitigation capacity. To address this gap, this study takes Haikou, China, as the study area and develops a spatially detailed mitigation-capacity indicator system. Mitigation capacity is incorporated as a key dimension into the conventional hazard–exposure–vulnerability framework. Based on multi-source geospatial data, data mining, and spatial analysis, a risk assessment system comprising 23 indicators was established. Indicator weights were determined using the analytic hierarchy process, and all indicator layers were harmonized to generate a typhoon risk map on a 30 m analytical grid. The results show that the high-resolution risk maps can effectively characterize the spatial extent and level differentiation of typhoon risk while revealing significant spatial heterogeneity in risk at the fine grid scale. In Haikou, 18.99% of the area is classified as being at high and very high risk levels, mainly distributed along the coastal zones of Shishan Town, Xixiu Town, Changliu Town, Lingshan Town, and Yanfeng Town. A preliminary plausibility check was conducted using eight georeferenced typhoon-related fatality locations recorded from 2015 to 2024. Five were located in high- or very-high-risk zones. Given the limited sample size, this comparison does not constitute formal statistical validation, but the observed spatial correspondence provides preliminary support for the plausibility of the assessment results. This study provides spatially explicit decision support for identifying intra-urban variations in typhoon risk, delineating priority areas for disaster mitigation, and optimizing the allocation of mitigation resources.