Returns of Stock Exchange Investments in Competitive Markets: Regression Analysis Concepts

Abstract

This paper considered the concepts of multiple regressions on stock prices for investment plans. The regression results revealed a significant positive relationship between the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index and crude oil prices, as well as inflation rate, indicating that increases in these variables enhance stock market performance and dividend outcomes. Conversely, the exchange rate exhibited a negative effect on the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index, implying that currency depreciation reduces dividend stability and investor confidence. The model's high explanatory power, reflected in the R-squared and adjusted R squared values (R-squared = 0.641558, Adjusted R-squared= 0.630473), strengthened the credibility of the analysis and confirmed that approximately 63% of variations in dividend outcomes were explained by the independent variables. The study concluded that fluctuations in crude oil prices, inflation, and exchange rates significantly shape the dividend performance of investors in Nigeria’s stock market. The study thus recommended that investors adopt optimal trading frequencies that balance market risks and dividend gains, while policymakers should prioritize exchange rate stabilization and inflation control to improve market efficiency. Also, by integrating computational modeling into financial analysis, the study contributed to a deeper understanding of dividend behavior in a competitive market context and provided actionable insights for investors, analysts, and regulators in Nigeria’s evolving financial landscape. The results have direct implications for risk management and effective decision making.