Analysis of Chinese-Ukrainian cooperation in the agricultural sector

Abstract

This article examines the history, key forms, and structural characteristics of Sino-Ukrainian agricultural cooperation. It also analyzes how domestic political changes in Ukraine and the regional geopolitical situation have affected bilateral agricultural relations. The study draws on intergovernmental agreements, corporate investment projects, and agricultural trade data between the two countries for the period 2009–2025. The authors identify three stages of cooperation: formation of the institutional framework (2009–2013); expansion of investment and trade (2014–2021); overcoming crisis consequences and partial recovery (2022–2025). Ukraine has become a major supplier of agricultural products to the Chinese market, particularly corn and barley. However, the political changes of 2014 stalled the implementation of several projects. Furthermore, the escalation of the conflict in 2022, followed by China’s adjustment of its grain import structure, led to a sharp and prolonged decline in Ukrainian agricultural exports to China. In 2024–2025, the two sides resumed dialogue: they signed new phytosanitary (quarantine) agreements and held meetings of the Subcommittee on Agricultural Cooperation. Ukraine’s rich black soil (chernozem) resources, on the one hand, and China’s technological advantages and market demand, on the other, create a natural foundation for mutually beneficial cooperation. Nevertheless, the stability of this cooperation is constrained by Ukraine’s land policy and the geopolitical situation. Further development will depend on postconflict restoration of logistics infrastructure, the consistency of Ukraine’s agricultural policy, and whether China adjusts its food import diversification strategy.