EXPORT POTENTIAL OF UKRAINE ON WORLD GRAIN MARKETS: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR ENSURING GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY
Abstract
The article examines the key determinants of Ukraine's export potential in world grain markets under the constraints of global food security. The strategic importance of grain exports for macroeconomic stability, the balance of intensive and extensive production factors, and their impact on transforming the industry's growth model are evaluated. The feasibility of developing multidimensional models that integrate market, logistics, innovation, and production components is demonstrated, providing a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms governing export elasticity.The empirical basis comprises analytical reports from the FAO, IGC, and KSE, as well as macroeconomic and sectoral statistics for 2000-2024. Statistical and comparative analyses, coupled with graphical visualisation, are employed to identify structural shifts in the grain sector and food price volatility. Trend extrapolation is applied to forecast global price trajectories and assess market asymmetry.Using Causal Loop Diagrams, the determinants of Ukraine's grain export potential were systematised to model their nonlinear cause-and-effect interactions. Findings indicate that innovation-oriented agricultural development creates systemic prerequisites for mitigating the negative externalities of infrastructure destruction, land withdrawal due to mining, contracted sown areas, and seaport blockades. The scientific novelty lies in formalising a conceptual model with explicit feedback loops, demonstrating how targeted technological interventions can restore and enhance export capacity within the global food security architecture.The practical significance resides in providing an evidence-based foundation for drafting a national agricultural transformation strategy. These insights offer actionable priorities for reconfiguring logistics networks, stimulating processing, and capitalising on Ukraine's comparative advantages to consolidate a firm position in global grain markets despite geopolitical disruptions. This ensures long-term resilience and market adaptability.