Evaluation of the economic efficiency of investments in the digital transformation of high-tech enterprises based on the real options method

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to develop a methodology for assessing the economic efficiency of investments in the digital transformation of high-tech enterprises that accounts for the value of managerial flexibility. The relevance of the study stems from the predominantly internal funding of digital projects at Russian enterprises and the high share of digital transformation programmes that fail to achieve their stated goals, which sharply raises the cost of an investment selection error. The article shows that the exclusive use of deterministic investment appraisal methods produces an effect of «investment myopia» - a systematic adverse selection of projects whose strategic value is concentrated in the option component. The methodological basis of the study comprises real options theory, the Black– Scholes model, the Cox–Ross–Rubinstein binomial model and the scenario approach of Copeland and Antikarov. A hybrid appraisal methodology based on expanded net present value is proposed; it includes a four-step procedure for determining the volatility of digital assets: categorical estimation against a reference scale, scenario refinement, reduction by the cognitive maturity index of the digital system, and sanction adjustment. A technological connectivity coefficient determining the realisable share of option value and a strategic viability index with a threshold decision scale are introduced. Testing on a model industrial Internet of Things project demonstrated that the transition from net present value to expanded net present value reverses the sign of the investment decision. Sensitivity analysis identified technological compatibility with the enterprise digital architecture as the critical condition for realising strategic flexibility.