The Impact and Consequences of Pre-2025 International Trade of United States of America, China and Europe on Africa

Abstract

Following the trade war between the world’s super powers, China and Europe have shifted the focus of their international trade policies on Africa. China's 2025-2026 trade policy on Africa, defined by a landmark unilateral zero-tariff policy, is the culmination of commitments made under the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), and starting May 1, 2026, China has been implementing a zero-tariff policy for 53 African nations, cementing its role as Africa's largest trading partner by easing access for agricultural goods, minerals, and manufacturing. This initiative, aimed at strengthening economic ties and supporting industrialization, heavily favors China's access to African raw materials while offering alternatives to the US dollar for transactions. Europe's 2025 trade and economic policy on Africa pivots from traditional, resource-extractive models toward "Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships". Centered around the EU's Global Gateway and African regional Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs), the policy aims at securing critical minerals for Europe's green transition while promoting local industrialization and capacity building within Africa. It is hoped that these policies are not just rhetoric’s or lip service. It has become expedient to analyze the impact of the pre-2025 international trade of the biggest powers in the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Africa to serve as a benchmark for future investigations. In the short term, the result indicates that international trade will depress nominal income (GDP) as well as imports, agriculture, industry and services in Africa while it portends general increase in employment, reduction in migration, and some measure of growth. However, employment in Agriculture will experience a steady decline up to 2035 probably because export earnings are not commensurate with imported value of goods. It is hoped that the new international trade policies will truly promote technology transfer, industrialization and some measure of import substitution in Africa and that African leaders will be truly committed and bold to hold the super powers to their promises.