The method of scenario-situational modeling in forecasting the innovative potential of territorial production complexes in the Far East

Abstract

The study is devoted to the examination of indicators of the economic state and innovative potential of the Far East, as well as individual entities. The theoretical basis of scenario-situational modeling and its importance in developing development strategies and forecasting the results of implementation are also presented. Purpose of the study is to develop scenarios for forecasting the innovative development of territorial production complexes in the Far East using scenario-situational modeling. The materials included analytical reports on economic activity in the Far East for 2020-2024 and ratings of Russian regions for 2020-2024. The methods used were analysis of statistical reports and scenario-situational modeling. The Far Eastern Federal District’s territorial production complexes are based on mining, fishing, logging, fuel and energy, the defense industry, and mechanical engineering. Khabarovsk Krai holds a leading position in terms of innovation potential. Overall, the region’s economic development is at a growth stage, despite existing problems (distance from the economic center, difficult terrain and climate, labor shortages, underdeveloped logistics, sanctions). Significant heterogeneity and unevenness in the development of innovation and technological processes throughout the district was noted. In addition, there are limitations on the innovative activities of industrial enterprises and an insufficient degree of implementation of technologically new projects in key sectors of the economic entity. Using the method of scenario-situational modeling, three options for the innovative development of territorial production complexes of the Far Eastern Federal District until 2030 are proposed. Each scenario takes into account a number of influencing factors, existing and potential resources, potential risks and threats, and productivity changes. The optimistic scenario predicts economic growth of more than five times that of the previous scenario. The optimal scenario, which can be achieved within the first two years, will reflect stagnation; however, there will be growth in economic indicators and expansion of the area of presence. The pessimistic model predicts a long-term economic downturn. The authors concluded that scenario-based modeling is effective in forecasting a region’s innovative development.