Evaluation of Aviation Training Organizational Challenges Using Monte Carlo Simulation: A Case of Selected Aviation Training Organizations in Nigeria

Abstract

This study evaluated the organizational challenges facing selected Aviation Training Organizations (ATOs) in Nigeria. The selected ATOs are the Nigerian College of Aviation Technology (NCAT), Zaria; the International Aviation College (IAC), Ilorin; and the African Aviation and Aerospace University (AAAU), Abuja using Monte Carlo simulation. A mixed-methods approach with a predominantly quantitative emphasis was adopted. Primary data were gathered through structured questionnaires administered to 150 stakeholders (135 valid responses; 90% response rate), supplemented by semi-structured interviews and structured expert elicitation of three-point estimates. Ten critical organizational variables, including funding shortfall, aircraft and simulator downtime, staff turnover, programme completion delays and maintenance cost overruns, were represented by triangular probability distributions. Institutional performance was measured by a composite Institutional Performance Index (IPI) scaled from 0 to 100. Monte Carlo simulations comprising 10,000 iterations were executed. Financial and funding-related challenges emerged as the most severe (composite mean = 4.04), followed by manpower and staffing constraints. Baseline simulation produced a mean IPI of 68.60 (SD = 3.11), with only a 33.7% probability of attaining a “good” performance threshold (IPI ≥ 70). Sensitivity analysis identified programme completion delay and aircraft/simulator downtime as the strongest negative influences. Scenario analysis showed that under optimistic assumptions the mean IPI rose to 78.4 with a 98.2% probability of good performance, while under pessimistic conditions the mean IPI declined to 57.9. All five null hypotheses were rejected. The findings demonstrate that Nigerian ATOs operate under substantial interconnected organizational uncertainties and affirm the practical utility of probabilistic, simulation-based analysis as a decision-support tool for ATO managers, regulatory authorities and policymakers. Keywords: Aviation Training Organizations; Monte Carlo simulation; Organizational challenges; ATO, Institutional performance; Risk assessment. Aims Research Journal Reference Format: Akaaba, I.I. & Usman, Y. (2026): Evaluation of Aviation Training Organizational Challenges Using Monte Carlo Simulation: A Case of Selected Aviation Training Organizations in Nigeria. Advances in Multidisciplinary Research Journal. Vol. 12 No. 3. Pp 13-22. www.isteams.net/aimsjournal. dx.doi.org/10.22624/AIMS/V12N3P2