Strategic Management of Organizations in Conditions of High Uncertainty (VUCA and BANI World): Agile Methodologies

Abstract

Modern organizational environments are characterized by instability, complexity, and unpredictability, reflected in the concepts of VUCA and BANI. Traditional strategic management approaches based on long-term planning are losing effectiveness, necessitating adaptive models, particularly Agile methodologies and the theory of dynamic capabilities. This study empirically examines the role of macroeconomic adaptability of the business ecosystem as a contextual factor influencing the relationship between uncertainty and economic performance under conditions of high turbulence. Using panel data from 217 countries for 2015–2024, a two-way fixed-effects model was developed. Real GDP growth serves as the dependent variable, business ecosystem adaptability is operationalized through the density of newly created enterprises, and uncertainty is measured using the World Uncertainty Index. Estimation was conducted using the least squares method with clustered standard errors. The results demonstrate a persistent negative effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on economic growth and a positive but unstable effect of business environment dynamism. The interaction effect was statistically insignificant, indicating that external entrepreneurial dynamics alone are insufficient to mitigate the adverse effects of uncertainty. These findings align with dynamic capabilities theory, suggesting that strategic adaptability is primarily developed through internal organizational processes. In this context, Agile practices combined with digitalization and digital management are considered key mechanisms for enhancing organizational flexibility. The study emphasizes the need to systematically develop internal adaptive capacities, enabling organizations to maintain resilience and flexibility regardless of changes in the external environment.