Public - Private Partnerships in Infrastructure and Communication Development A Pathway to Sustainable Growth in Nigeria
Abstract
This study investigated the role of public–private partnership (PPP)-driven infrastructure and communication development in fostering inclusive and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria, using annual data from 1986 to 2024 and applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework. Data were sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and the World Bank’s Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) database. The short-run estimates revealed strong growth persistence, with past GDP values significantly influencing current output. However, PPP investments showed mixed and often adverse effects, reflecting implementation challenges, financing constraints, and governance inefficiencies. Government expenditure and inflation exerted positive but insignificant impacts, while employment displayed contractionary and lagged expansionary effects, underscoring structural dualities in Nigeria’s labour market. Institutional quality contributed positively but only with delay, suggesting that governance reforms required time to produce measurable outcomes. In the long run, PPP investments exerted a statistically significant negative effect on growth, contrary to theoretical expectations. This reflected inflated project costs, weak institutional capacity, and poorly structured contractual frameworks. Government expenditure remained positive but insignificant, while employment failed to stimulate growth, reflecting concentration in low-productivity sectors. Inflation had no significant long-run impact, whereas institutional quality exerted a significant negative effect, highlighting extractive governance structures that constrained economic performance. These findings underscored the paradox of growth strategies that did not translate into inclusive outcomes due to fiscal inefficiencies, corruption, and institutional weaknesses. The study recommends reforming PPP frameworks, improving expenditure efficiency, enhancing labour productivity, maintaining price stability, and strengthening institutions to unlock Nigeria’s potential for sustainable and inclusive growth.