Between Deeper Integration and Middlepowerism: Mexico's Evolving Foreign Policy in the Shadow of the Hegemon

Abstract

Mexico is often considered a middle power based on its size, location, membership and activity in international organizations, but different governments have been more or less willing to embrace this status. Despite their idealistic critiques of the existing world order, the left-populist Morena governments of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018–2024) and Claudia Sheinbaum (2024-) have distanced themselves from the middle power category. This article draws on theories of middlepowerism from Eduard Jordaan and Robert W. Cox to explain this reluctance. I argue that Mexico's foreign policy positioning is best understood as the outcome of changes in the external environment, particularly its relationship with the United States, and changes in domestic policies and political economic choices under a government that aspires to break with its neoliberal past. The Trump administration's hostile and belligerent economic and security postures have increasingly constrained Mexico's capacity and willingness to adopt a middle power role.