External Drivers of Autocratization in the Western Balkans

Abstract

Over the course of past three decades, extensive external efforts aimed at consolidating democracy in the Western Balkans have been underway. Despite these endeavours, persistent political gridlocks and security crises serve as a stark reminder that substantial work remains. This article adopts the viewpoint of Western donor states, exploring the impact of their democracy promotion policies on the region. Focusing on the United States’ approach, it examines why externally supported democratization, originally rooted in principles, has fallen short of its intended goals, and in some cases helped lead to autocratization. The prevalent stabilitocracy theory ascribes externally “facilitated” autocratization to the procedural and political failings of the EU enlargement and accession negotiations process. This article offers a distinct theoretical perspective by introducing the concept of chessboard politics among major global powers and posits that Western policies are increasingly driven by systemic competition. As regional leaders with undemocratic and illiberal proclivities align with revisionist states, Western donors, reluctant to lose geopolitical influence, find themselves extending tacit or explicit support to those same local elites engaged in autocratization. The article relies on process tracing to illustrate these dynamics within the context of developments in Serbia and US foreign policy towards it since 2000.