Scenario modeling in the system of making political decisions on ensuring cybersecurity

Abstract

This article explores the methodological potential of scenario modeling as a tool for optimizing public administration in the field of cybersecurity. The purpose of this article is to conceptualize the scenario method within the framework of political and administrative decision-making to ensure cybersecurity in the Russian Federation, as well as to develop a multi-vector predictive matrix for verifying the long-term resilience of executive institutions in the face of digital threats. In this study, the author differentiated and detailed four basic scenario development trends: inertial, crisis, critical, and geopolitical. Each of the identified scenarios shifted the focus of analysis from narrowly technical aspect vulnerabilities to systemic administrative, managerial, and regulatory risks. Result. As a result of this analysis, the author concludes that integrating scenario modeling into public management is a mandatory imperative for preserving digital sovereignty. Implementing the proposed scenarios into strategic planning practices allows for overcoming the existing limitations of regulatory frameworks. Thus, the scenario-based approach ensures the political leadership’s transition to a model of proactive anti-crisis administration, allowing for the acceleration of import substitution and the minimization of the risks of external sanctions pressure in the IT sector, guaranteeing the stability of the entire vertical of government administration.