MODELS OF ADAPTIVE STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF SANCTIONS AND TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTIONS OF SUPPLY CHAINS

Abstract

The relevance of the study is determined by the large-scale changes in the foreign economic environment that followed after February 2022: the introduction of sectoral sanctions in the field of finance, technology and logistics, the closure of traditional sales markets, and restrictions on access to imported components and equipment. The modified Cobb-Douglas production function is used as a methodological basis, supplemented by the author's parameter S, which characterizes the level of technological accessibility of the industry. The introduced parameter γ– the elasticity of output by technological accessibility, makes it possible to quantify the sanctions vulnerability of the industry and compare the effectiveness of various adaptation strategies in terms of cumulative factor productivity. Based on industry data on metallurgy, mechanical engineering, electronics, chemical and food industries, estimates of γ are calculated and their relationship to production dynamics in 2022-2024 is shown. A scenario forecast of output recovery until 2027 has been carried out under optimistic and baseline scenarios for three key industries. A three-level model of adaptive strategic management (macro, meso and micro levels) is proposed, which systematizes management tools and subjects at each level, indicating their impact on the parameters of the production function. At the micro level, proactive ("developing") and reactive ("preserving") strategies are distinguished. The results of the study are of practical importance for the development of enterprise strategies in the context of foreign economic turbulence, assessment of the effectiveness of import substitution programs and improvement of state policy in the field of support for non-primary non-energy exports and technological sovereignty.