Hydrogeological Response to Low-Magnitude Seismicity: Fracture Sealing, Ground Deformation, and Lake Depletion in the Sikkim Himalaya

Abstract

Earthquake-induced fracturing and microcrack development in subsurface strata are widely recognized as important processes influencing seepage and the hydrological behaviour of surface water bodies, particularly in tectonically active mountainous terrains. However, the hydrogeological response to repeated low-magnitude (<4) seismic events remains poorly understood. This study presents an integrated geoelectrical and remote sensing investigation of the Nagi Lake region in the Sikkim Himalaya, India, based on Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) surveys conducted in May 2022 and March 2026, following a seismic sequence of 74 low-magnitude earthquakes recorded during February 2026. Comparative analysis of four VES profiles (VES1–VES4), supported by validatory factor analysis, reveals spatially heterogeneous changes in subsurface electrical characteristics between the two survey periods. VES1, VES2, and VES3 indicate reduced signatures of pre-existing microcracks that are consistent with sediment densification and partial sealing, whereas VES4 suggests localized development or persistence of microfractures. Because the surveys span approximately four years, these changes likely reflect the combined influence of long-term hydrogeological, environmental, and geomorphic processes, with the February 2026 seismic sequence representing one potential contributing factor rather than the sole driver. To further evaluate ground deformation, Sentinel-1A Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data acquired between January 2019 and March 2026 were analysed using Persistent Scatterer Interferometric SAR (PS-InSAR). The results indicate cumulative Line-of-Sight (LOS) displacements ranging from −17.9 cm (movement away from the satellite) to +3.5 cm (movement toward the satellite) in the vicinity of Nagi Lake, reflecting localized surface deformation with millimetre-scale precision. These observations provide complementary evidence of ongoing subsurface adjustment that may promote sediment compaction and microcrack modification. Overall, the study demonstrates measurable temporal changes in the subsurface structure of the Nagi Lake area and suggests that repeated low-magnitude seismicity may contribute to subsurface restructuring alongside other environmental processes. The findings highlight the value of integrating geophysical monitoring and satellite-based deformation analysis for understanding groundwater–surface water interactions and supporting the sustainable management of vulnerable Himalayan water bodies.