Techno-Economic and Lifecycle Assessment of Concentrated Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage for Dispatchable Renewable Generation in Nigeria

Abstract

Nigeria faces a dual energy challenge: meeting rapidly growing electricity demand while reducing reliance on fossil fuels and associated greenhouse gas emissions. Despite possessing exceptional solar resources, with an average solar irradiation of about 5.5 kWh/m²/day, the country utilizes less than 1% of its vast solar potential, primarily through limited photovoltaic (PV) installations. No utility-scale Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant with Thermal Energy Storage (TES) currently operates in Nigeria, forcing dependence on unreliable grids, diesel generators, and gas flaring. This research addresses the critical question: How can Nigeria strategically develop its abundant solar energy through CSP integrated with Thermal Energy Storage (TES) to provide a dispatchable clean energy source to reduce GHG emissions and strengthen energy security? Using the Nigerian Meteorological Agency's solar data, we model the technical potential for CSP in high-irradiation zones (e.g., Sokoto, Maiduguri). A techno-economic analysis is employed to evaluate the configuration of a parabolic trough CSP plant with molten-salt storage tailored to Nigeria's grid demand and dry season profile. Finally, a lifecycle assessment provides a calculation of the avoided emissions, showcasing the carbon offset potential from displaced diesel generators and gas-fired plants. Modelling results demonstrate that a single 100 MW CSP plant with 10-hour storage in Northern Nigeria could generate over 400 GWh/year of firm schedulable electricity, displacing an estimated 250,000 tonnes of CO₂ annual emissions from fossil fuel sources. The analysis further suggests that the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) projections for CSP-TES reach competitiveness with diesel generation when factoring in fuel cost volatility and storage's capacity value. Quite significantly, CSP-TES can provide reliable power to industrial clusters and mini-grids, reducing widespread diesel generator use. The validation against international projects confirms technical feasibility in Nigeria's climate; by using operational data from similar climatic regions, such as Morocco's Noor Ouarzazate complex as a reference. This project is of critical national importance. It provides an evidence-based blueprint for Nigeria to leverage advanced, dispatchable renewable technology, harness its solar wealth for energy security, industrial growth, and meaningful contribution to its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of reducing emissions by 20% unconditionally by 2030.